Five Predictions for E3 2010
Posted May 16, 2010
With E3 2010 rapidly approaching in less than a month, we are getting very excited (and our conference invitations in order) for the expected and surprise announcements that will be peppered on the days before the LA convention center opens their doors.
The path to widespread adoption of 3D technology has at least a couple years to make it into gaming. Will there be announcements of a couple AAA titles in 3D? Sure. But similar to the release of Avatar on Blu-ray, they will be designed to push early adopters to pick up a new 3DTV. Sony has the easiest path to utilizing 3D as I’m sure there’s a strategy in the works to bundle 3D televisions with the Playstation 3.
As for Project Natal and Playstation Move, we are going to see exactly why the Nintendo Wii was simply scratching the surface with motion controls; particularly Natal. We know that Microsoft is planning a huge presentation with Cirque de Soliel to kick it off and MTV (not the craptacular G4 network) will be broadcasting the event live as well as commercial free. I have a feeling that the launch video we saw at last years E3 is going to pale in comparison to the advances in the technology. September / October release dates for both technologies are likely.
In addition to price points for Natal and Playstation Move, there will be bundled console announcements with the new motion control tools.
In addition to getting a November 2010 release date for the Nintendo 3DS as well as demo models, we will also see the announcement of the PSP 2. Will it use 3D technology? Possible, but it’s more likely that it will have more in common with the iPad / iPhone platform. I foresee a touchscreen interface on the PSP2, but with the inclusion of actual controls as well. It will have a larger amount of on-board storage as well. And if they land a mobile provider partner, 3G connectivity.
With the hardware changes, we are likely to see an app store announcement from both companies that have a larger focus on casual titles, but not discounting the mainstream releases as well. Apple’s app store is too powerful to ignore at this point and Nintendo would be foolish not to take advantage of reselling their extensive library of classic titles at a premium.
As much as Nintendo has cared about online services, 90% chance that Sony is going to roll this out over Nintendo. Even with Sony’s gaming division finally becoming profitable this year, there’s a huge market for a premium service if Xbox Live is any example. A retooling of the Playstation Home network is likely. Possible benefits could be achievements that translate into purchase points on the Playstation network and a more robust system for personalizing avatars.
Nintendo is more likely to keep this free if they do finally roll out a unified online service. Rolling out an online service for the Wii and NDS would more likely be a response to Apple’s upcoming gaming service for the iPhone / iPad / iPod Touch platforms rather than responding to Xbox Live.
With Apple’s new iPhone launching shortly after E3 concludes, mobile developers are already rushing to create casual and some not so casual games for the Apple and Android platforms. We are going to see vastly more announcements coming from major development studios that are mobile ports of their new titles due to vast improvements in hardware since E3 2009.
In addition, the iPad platform is going to see a ton of major game announcements due to the higher tolerance for price points on the app store and much larger screen space for gaming. We will see a variety of iPad exclusive titles at large price points. Electronic Arts will be the first to jump on this with their sports titles and racing franchises.
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Motion technology from Microsoft and Sony will impress, but 3D technology will not.
The path to widespread adoption of 3D technology has at least a couple years to make it into gaming. Will there be announcements of a couple AAA titles in 3D? Sure. But similar to the release of Avatar on Blu-ray, they will be designed to push early adopters to pick up a new 3DTV. Sony has the easiest path to utilizing 3D as I’m sure there’s a strategy in the works to bundle 3D televisions with the Playstation 3.
As for Project Natal and Playstation Move, we are going to see exactly why the Nintendo Wii was simply scratching the surface with motion controls; particularly Natal. We know that Microsoft is planning a huge presentation with Cirque de Soliel to kick it off and MTV (not the craptacular G4 network) will be broadcasting the event live as well as commercial free. I have a feeling that the launch video we saw at last years E3 is going to pale in comparison to the advances in the technology. September / October release dates for both technologies are likely.
In addition to price points for Natal and Playstation Move, there will be bundled console announcements with the new motion control tools.
Nintendo and Sony handhelds are going to step up their game
In addition to getting a November 2010 release date for the Nintendo 3DS as well as demo models, we will also see the announcement of the PSP 2. Will it use 3D technology? Possible, but it’s more likely that it will have more in common with the iPad / iPhone platform. I foresee a touchscreen interface on the PSP2, but with the inclusion of actual controls as well. It will have a larger amount of on-board storage as well. And if they land a mobile provider partner, 3G connectivity.
With the hardware changes, we are likely to see an app store announcement from both companies that have a larger focus on casual titles, but not discounting the mainstream releases as well. Apple’s app store is too powerful to ignore at this point and Nintendo would be foolish not to take advantage of reselling their extensive library of classic titles at a premium.
Surefire game announcements
- A new Zelda title for the Wii announced at the end of the Nintendo Press Conference. Similar to the trailer for Super Mario Galaxy 2, there will be teaser date for the following year.
- Grand Theft Auto 5: There will be no trailer and no set date for the title. Just expect a splash screen of the logo and perhaps the locale announced. All bets are on London.
- Gears of Wars 3: Expect to see footage at the Microsoft conference and perhaps a vague date.
- PS3 Trifecta: Killzone 3 / Resistance 3 / Infamous 2 Announcements: And one of them will have a November 2010 release date. My bet would be a short development cycle on Killzone due to their K2 graphic engine and existing multiplayer structure.
- Fable III: Peter was already hinting at the last E3 during the Microsoft press conference. Expect to see an announcement, perhaps a trailers and a 2011 release date (that will inevitably be pushed to 2012). Natal features are likely as well.
- Portal 2: Definitely some concept art and screenshots. Maybe a trailer as well.
- (In the realm of possible) A new Starfox game. Nintendo would be able to revitalize this franchise in a New York minute with a single screenshot of the logo.
Sony or Nintendo will offer a premium level of online service for a fee
As much as Nintendo has cared about online services, 90% chance that Sony is going to roll this out over Nintendo. Even with Sony’s gaming division finally becoming profitable this year, there’s a huge market for a premium service if Xbox Live is any example. A retooling of the Playstation Home network is likely. Possible benefits could be achievements that translate into purchase points on the Playstation network and a more robust system for personalizing avatars.
Nintendo is more likely to keep this free if they do finally roll out a unified online service. Rolling out an online service for the Wii and NDS would more likely be a response to Apple’s upcoming gaming service for the iPhone / iPad / iPod Touch platforms rather than responding to Xbox Live.
Mobile Gaming will take a much larger stage at E3 2010
With Apple’s new iPhone launching shortly after E3 concludes, mobile developers are already rushing to create casual and some not so casual games for the Apple and Android platforms. We are going to see vastly more announcements coming from major development studios that are mobile ports of their new titles due to vast improvements in hardware since E3 2009.
In addition, the iPad platform is going to see a ton of major game announcements due to the higher tolerance for price points on the app store and much larger screen space for gaming. We will see a variety of iPad exclusive titles at large price points. Electronic Arts will be the first to jump on this with their sports titles and racing franchises.
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